rusworldРоссия и мир: научный диалогRussia & World: Sc. Dialogue2782-3067НИИРК10.53658/RW2023-3-1(7)-40-53rusworld-108Research ArticleМЕЖДУНАРОДНЫЕ, ГЛОБАЛЬНЫЕ И РЕГИОНАЛЬНЫЕ ПРОЦЕССЫ. Международные отношенияINTERNATIONAL, GLOBAL AND REGIONAL PROCESSES. International relationsК вопросу о характере и динамике развития российско-турецких отношений в постсоветский периодOn the Issue of the Nature and Dynamics of the Development of Russian-Turkish Relations in the Post-Soviet Periodhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3286-384XАршакянГ. М.ArshakyanG. M.

 Аршакян Григор Михаелович. Доктор политических наук. Доцент 

Ереван, ул. Туманяна, 42 

 Grigor M. Arshakyan. DSc (Polit.). Associate Professor,

42, st. Tumanyan, Yerevan

garshakyan@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6422-3647СафарянА. В.SafaryanA. V.

 Сафарян Арам Виленович. Кандидат филологических наук. Доцент политологии, директор Центра российских исследований факультета международных отношений

Ереван, 0025, Алека Манукяна, 1 

 Aram V. Safaryan. CandSc (Philol). Associate Professor of Political Science, Director of the Center for Russian Studies, Faculty of International Relations

1 Alex Manoogian, Yerevan, 0025 

aramsafaryan@yahoo.comГосударственный университет им. В. БрюсоваАрменияV. Bryusov State UniversityArmeniaЕреванский государственный университетАрменияYerevan State UniversityArmenia202317032023014053Copyright © Аршакян Г.М., Сафарян А.В., 20232023Аршакян Г.М., Сафарян А.В.Arshakyan G.M., Safaryan A.V.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.russia-world.ru/jour/article/view/108

В статье рассматриваются процесс развития российско-турецких отношений последних 30 лет, основные аспекты геополитических отношений и, в частности, конфликты на Южном Кавказе и в прилегающих регионах. Авторы считают, что в этом контексте ключевыми являются две карабахские войны, грузино-абхазский конфликт и пятидневная Грузино-Южноосетинская война, а также украинский кризис, ливийский и сирийский конфликты, в которых Москва и Анкара имеют разные интересы. Более того, от итогов разрешения этих конфликтов в значительной степени будет зависеть новая конфигурация сил на Южном Кавказе. Авторы обосновывают основные закономерности развития двусторонних российско-турецких отношений, которые характеризуются сочетанием противостояния, конкуренции и сотрудничества. Статья подготовлена по результатам научной дискуссии, прошедшей в Национальном исследовательском институте развития коммуникаций (НИИРК) в 2022 году.

The article examines the development of Russian-Turkish relations over the past 30 years, the main aspects of geopolitical relations and, in particular, the conflicts in the South Caucasus and adjacent regions. The authors believe that the key ones are the two Karabakh wars, the Georgian-Abkhazian conflict and the fve-day Georgian-South Ossetian war, as well as the Ukrainian crisis, the Libyan and Syrian conflicts, in which Moscow and Ankara have different interests. The new confguration of forces in the South Caucasus will largely depend on the outcome of the resolution of these conflicts. The authors identify the main patterns in the development of bilateral Russian-Turkish relations, which are characterized by a combination of confrontation, competition and cooperation. The article was based on the results of a scientifc discussion held at the National Communications Development Research Institution (NIIRC), Moscow, Russia in 2022.

РоссияТурцияЮжный КавказЦентральная Азиягеополитическое соперничествонагорно-карабахский конфликтАбхазияRussiaTurkeySouth CaucasusCentral Asiageopolitical rivalryNagornoKarabakh conflictAbkhaziaReferencesАватков В.А. Идейно-ценностный фактор во внешней политике Турции (Ideological and Value Factor in Turkish Foreign Policy) // Вестник МГИМО-Университета. 2019. № 12(4).Avatkov V.A. Ideological and Value Factor in Turkish Foreign Policy. Bulletin of MGIMO-University. 2019; 12(4) (In Russian).Багдасарян С., Петрова С. Геополитические позиции России и США в сирийском конфликте (Geopolitical positions of Russia and the USA in the Syrian conflict, State and municipal administration) // Государственное и муниципальное управление. Ученые записки СКАГС. 2018. № 2.Bagdasaryan S., Petrova S. Geopolitical positions of Russia and the USA in the Syrian conflict, State and municipal administration. Uchenye zapiski SKAGS, 2018; 2 (In Russian).Большая Евразия: Развитие, безопасность, сотрудничество (Greater Eurasia: Development, security, cooperation. Yearbook). Ежегодник. Вып. 2. Ч. 2 / ИНИОН РАН. Отд. науч. сотрудничества; Отв. ред. В.И. Герасимов. М., 2019. 1040 с.Greater Eurasia: Development, security, cooperation. Yearbook. Issue. 2. Part 2 / RAN. INION. Department of scientifc cooperation; ed. Gerasimov. Moscow, 2019: 1040 (In Russian).Гаджиев К.С. Геополитика Кавказа (Geopolitics of the Caucasus). М., 2001.Gadzhiev K.S. Geopolitics of the Caucasus. Moscow, 2001 (In Russian).Сафарян Ал., Погосян Н. О сотрудничестве евразийских университетов в области изучения остродискуссионной проблематики «на стыке» арменистики и тюркологии (On the cooperation of Eurasian universities in the feld of studying controversial issues “at the junction” of Armenian studies and Turkic studies) // Избранные страницы российско-армянского стратегического союза. Ереван, 2022.Safaryan Al., Pogosyan N. On the cooperation of Eurasian universities in the feld of studying controversial issues “at the junction” of Armenian studies and Turkic studies. Selected pages of the Russian-Armenian strategic union. Yerevan, 2022 (In Russian).Сафрастян Р. Об идеологическом обосновании региональной политики Турции: Концепция Евразия-Южный Кавказ: региональная безопасность и стабильность (On the ideological justifcation of the regional policy of Turkey: the concept of Eurasia-South Caucasus: regional security and stability) / Материалы конференции. Под общей редакцией Гаянэ Новиковой. Редакторы А. Мельян, С. Саркисян. Перевод А. Мельян. Ереван, 2004. С. 70–72.Safrastyan R. On the ideological justifcation of the regional policy of Turkey: the concept of Eurasia-South Caucasus: regional security and stability / Materials of the conf. General ed. of G Novikova. Ed. A. Melyan, S. Sargsyan. Transl. by A. Melyan. Yerevan, 2004:70–72 (In Russian).Хачатрян Г.Д. Нагорно-Карабахский конфликт сквозь призму отношений Армении и Турции (The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict through the prism of relations between Armenia and Turkey) // Постсоветские исследования. 2018. Т. 1. № 2. С. 221–231.Khachatryan G.D. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict through the prism of relations between Armenia and Turkey. Post-Soviet Studies. 2018, 1(2):221–231 (In Russian).Allison R. Military Forces in the Soviet Successor States. The Adelphi Paper, 1993; 33 (280):1–40. 9. Aras B. Davutoglu Era in Turkish Foreign Policy. Insight Turkey, 2009; 11(3):137.Allison R., Military Forces in the Soviet Successor States. The Adelphi Paper, 1993; 33 (280):1–40.Aras B., Akpinar P. The Relations between Turkey and the Caucasus. Perceptions, 2011 Autumn; XVI (3):53-68.Aras B. Davutoglu Era in Turkish Foreign Policy. Insight Turkey, 2009; 11(3):137.Bal I. The Turkish Model and the Turkic Republics. Perceptions: Journal of International Affairs. 1998,September-November.Aras B., Akpinar P. The Relations between Turkey and the Caucasus. Perceptions, 2011 Autumn; XVI (3):53-68.Çelikpala M. From Immigrants to Diaspora: Influence of the North Caucasian diaspora in Turkey. Middle Eastern Studies; 2016, May, 42 (3): 423–446.Bal I. The Turkish Model and the Turkic Republics. Perceptions: Journal of International Affairs. 1998,September-November.Çelikpala M. Turkey as a Regional Power and the Caucasus. Insight Turkey; 2007, 9(2).Çelikpala M. From Immigrants to Diaspora: Influence of the North Caucasian diaspora in Turkey. Middle Eastern Studies; 2016, May, 42 (3):423–446.Demir S. Turkey’s Foreign Policy and Security Perspectives in the 21st Century: Prospects and Challenges. Florida: Brown Walker Press, 2016.Çelikpala M. Turkey as a Regional Power and the Caucasus. Insight Turkey; 2007, 9(2).Devrim D. and Schulz E. The Caucasus: Which Role for Turkey in the European Neighborhood? Insight Turkey, 2009;11.3:177–193.Demir S. Turkey’s Foreign Policy and Security Perspectives in the 21st Century: Prospects and Challenges. Florida: Brown Walker Press, 2016.Eissler E.R. Can Turkey De-isolate Abkhazia? Turkish Policy Quarterly, 2013; 12(3):125-135.Devrim D. and Schulz E. The Caucasus: Which Role for Turkey in the European Neighborhood? Insight Turkey, 2009;11.3:177–193.Ereker F. Özert U. Crimea in Turkish-Russian Relations: Identity, Discourse, or Interdependence. Athens Journal of Social Sciences. 2018, 5(4):371-388.Eissler E.R. Can Turkey De-isolate Abkhazia? Turkish Policy Quarterly, 2013; 12(3):125-135.Ereker F., Özert U. Crimea in Turkish-Russian Relations: Identity, Discourse, or Interdependence. Athens Journal of Social Sciences. 2018, 5(4):371-388.Fuller G. Turkey Faces East: New Orientations toward the Middle East and the Old Soviet Union. Santa Monica, CA: Rand, 1997:37–39.Fuller G. Turkey Faces East: New Orientations toward the Middle East and the Old Soviet Union. Santa Monica, CA: Rand, 1997:37–39.Craig Nation R. Russia and the Caucasus. Connections; 2015,14 (2):1-12.Craig Nation R. Russia and the Caucasus. Connections; 2015,14 (2):1-12.Hale W. Turkey, the Black Sea and Transcaucasia, In Transcaucasia Boundaries. New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1996.Hale W. Turkey, the Black Sea and Transcaucasia, In Transcaucasia Boundaries. New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1996.Helvaciköylü G. The Role of Turkey and Russia on the Resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict. UPA Strategic Affairs, 2021, 2 (1).Helvaciköylü G. The Role of Turkey and Russia on the Resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict. UPA Strategic Affairs, 2021, 2 (1).Kramer H. Will Central Asia Become Turkey`s Sphere of Influence. Perceptions: Journal of International Affairs. 1996, March-May.Kramer H. Will Central Asia Become Turkey`s Sphere of Influence. Perceptions: Journal of International Affairs. 1996, March-May.Masumova R. N. Russia and Turkey: Resetting Economic Partnership. Perceptions, 2018 Summer, XXIII (2).Masumova R. N. Russia and Turkey: Resetting Economic Partnership. Perceptions, 2018 Summer, XXIII (2).Öniş Z., Yilmaz S. Turkey and Russia in a Shifting Global Order: Cooperation, Conflict and Asymmetric Interdependence in a Turbulent Region. Third World Quarterly, 2016; 37(1):71–95.Öniş Z., Yilmaz S. Turkey and Russia in a Shifting Global Order: Cooperation, Conflict and Asymmetric Interdependence in a Turbulent Region. Third World Quarterly, 2016; 37(1):71–95.Saakashvili M. Interview with Mikheil Saakashvili: Georgia’s Westward March. Turkish Policy Quarterly. 2013; 12(1).Saakashvili M. Interview with Mikheil Saakashvili: Georgia’s Westward March. Turkish Policy Quarterly. 2013; 12(1).Waal D.Th. Black Garden: Armenia and Azerbaijan through Peace and War. New York and London: NYU Press, 2003.Waal D. Th. Black Garden: Armenia and Azerbaijan through Peace and War. New York and London: NYU Press, 2003.Weiss A., Zabanova Y. Georgia and Abkhazia Caught between Turkey and Russia. SWP Comments 54: German Institute for International and Security Affairs, 2016 December:2–3.Weiss A., Zabanova Y. Georgia and Abkhazia Caught between Turkey and Russia. SWP Comments 54: German Institute for International and Security Affairs, 2016 December:2–3.Winrow M.G. Turkey and Newly Independent States of Central Asia and Transcaucasus. Middle East Review of International Affairs Journal (MERIA). 1997; 1(2-July).Winrow M. G. Turkey and Newly Independent States of Central Asia and Transcaucasus. Middle East Review of International Affairs Journal (MERIA). 1997; 1(2-July).Çelikpala M. Türkiye ve Kafkasya: Reaksiyoner Dış Politikadan Proaktif Ritmik Diplomasiye Geçiş. Uluslararası İlişkiler, Cilt 7, Sayı 25:93–126.Çelikpala M. Türkiye ve Kafkasya: Reaksiyoner Dış Politikadan Proaktif Ritmik Diplomasiye Geçiş. Uluslararası İlişkiler, Cilt 7, Sayı 25:93–126.Davutoğlu A. Stratejik Derinlik: Türkiyenin Uluslararası Konumu, Istanbul, 2001.Davutoğlu A. Stratejik Derinlik: Türkiyenin Uluslararası Konumu, Istanbul, 2001.Yüksel E. Strategies of Turkish proxy warfare in northern Syria. CRU Report, 2019,November:1-24.Yüksel E. Strategies of Turkish proxy warfare in northern Syria. CRU Report, 2019, November:1-24.

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.