The impact of the gas crisis of 2021–2022 on energy sustainability and the implementation of climate commitments by the largest emitters of carbon dioxide

Abstract

Under the Paris Climate Agreement, 193 states have committed themselves to reducing carbon emissions and adapting to climate change. Almost half of them have now adopted programs to achieve carbon neutrality. Last year, leading up to the 26th UN Climate Conference in Glasgow, many of the leading CO2 emitters stepped up their climate targets significantly. However, the desire to increasingly reduce fossil and nuclear energy in favor of «clean» sources has collided in 2021 with a global energy crisis that has called into question the sustainability of energy systems tailored to achieve climate goals. The purpose of this study is to identify the relationship between the rapid growth in natural gas prices and the implementation of climate commitments and national plans of states dependent on natural gas imports. The author analyzes the impact of the energy crisis on gas prices, and then, using the example of developed and developing countries among the largest emitters of carbon dioxide, monitors the impact of this price increase on the implementation of their climate obligations. Based on statistical data, the author studies the energy balance of China, Japan, India and Germany, its vulnerability to gas prices, the reaction of energy systems to the crisis and the subsequent measures of states to mitigate it in terms of following climate paradigms, in particular, abandoning coal. As a result of the study, the author comes to the conclusion that the issuing states in times of crises are forced to partially deviate from their previous climate measures, respectively, the implementation of their ambitious climate commitments that do not take into account such risks is in question.