INTERNATIONAL, GLOBAL AND REGIONAL PROCESSES. International relations
The article presents the materials of a round table held at the National Research Institute for the Communications Development (Moscow, Russia), the main topic of which was the experience of resolving territorial conflicts.
A wide range of issues related to the theory and practice of crisis resolution practices is considered. The main political and legal approaches and diplomatic instruments to international mediation in the settlement of territorial conflicts are characterized. The results of the study of the historical experience of international mediation in the settlement of territorial conflicts are presented. A data-based methodology is proposed that allows evaluate information sources covering the conflict.
The conflicts in Central Asia and the Caucasus that took place in different periods are considered. Territorial conflicts are numerous in the Central Asian region. They are mainly related to the absence of official state borders between the three countries: Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan. The most complex, large-scale, and bloody is the conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in 2021, which was supported by the armed forces of the two countries. Negotiations, delimitation, and demarcation of borders are still the most significant alternative to existing conflicts.
The tools for managing these events are highlighted. A set of recommendations is proposed that has scientific and practical significance in terms of anti-crisis response strategies in the post-Soviet space.
The article analyzes global, regional and internal factors that have a significant impact on socio-political fluctuations and destabilization in Afghanistan. A special attention is paid to the risks associated with regional security, including the problems of terrorism and drug threats. Among the stabilizing factors, a special place is given to the development of Afghanistan’s transit potential (the opportunity to become a connecting bridge between Central Asia and South Asia). The author analyzes the activities of the Taliban during their seven months in power, puts forward a hypothesis about the causes of internal confrontation in the movement and pays attention to the problem of recognition of the new government by the international community. It is noted that a paradoxical phenomenon has developed when negotiations on economic and infrastructure projects are conducted with the illegitimate, unrecognized government of the Taliban (a terrorist organization banned in many countries), investment agreements are concluded, foreign policy relations are established, new diplomats are accepted. Perhaps, on the example of Afghanistan, the world will see a new mechanism for international legitimization of governments that seized power by force and were initially unrecognized by international partners.
The article discusses the possibilities and limits of assessing the stability of political systems in partially recognized states. The author explores the features, properties and characteristics of the central phenomena – «political system», «stability», «stability», «partially recognized states». Considerable attention is focused on establishing differences and similarities between the concepts of «stability» and «sustainability». The relevance of the study is determined by the need to establish links between the state of political systems, partially recognized by the state from external and internal political processes and relations.
The methodological basis of the study is: general scientific and systemic methods; structural-functional and comparative political methods; content analysis of historical and legal documents. The chosen methodological base is determined by two factors: the first is modern trends, patterns and processes of progressive development of domestic and foreign political science; the second is the author’s position of the researcher.
The results of the study indicate the possible validity of assessing the stability of the political systems of partially recognized states, considering the peculiarities of their political culture. While, as external factors that determine individual, but essential elements of the political system of partially recognized states, they indicate the characteristic instability of the political systems of the studied polities.
The article is devoted to the issue of friendliness as a category for determining the current state of the communication regimes of the Republic of Moldova and the Russian Federation at the regional level. In the process of research, the theoretical and methodological base was involved, the basis of which was the works of representatives of political realism and social constructivism. In the course of the analysis, it was possible to identify the main components that make it possible to judge the nature of the friendliness of the two communication regimes, including: the consistency of national interests in the region; parameters of cooperation in the field of security, in the field of trade and economic cooperation, in the plane of the humanitarian direction. A separate place is occupied by the issue of settlement of Moldovan-Pridnestrovian relations, in which Russia is given the place of a guarantor of peace and security in the region. It is proved that in the socio-political discourse of Moldova, Russia is perceived as one of the main participants in the regional system of relations, in connection with which geopolitical parties were formed on the political condition of the Moldovan state, of which one part stands for the European integration of Moldova, the other for balanced relations between Moldova, the EU and Russia, giving preference to the European vector. The third forces – of the unionist persuasion are in favor of the integration of Moldova into Romania. It is determined that the degree of friendliness of the regimes is directly dependent on the gradation of the national interests of the states in the region and their connection with external actors.
The ongoing French president E. Macron and the leader of the right-wing leader of the right-wing National Union Party M. Le Pen are the main candidates for the upcoming French presidential election in 2022, especially in the case of a second round of voting. The purpose of this article is to estimate the influence of pandemic factor in the rivalry between the two candidates and a possible turnout of the upcoming election. The article focuses especially on two aspects of the two politicians’ rivalry: Macron’s controversial actions against the pandemic, which have had a negative impact on his rating and Le Pen’s attempts to use the pandemic to broaden her electorate and increase her chances for the election.
To achieve the goals, statistical methods, work with sociological surveys, as well as a comparative analysis of the views of two politicians on specific issues were used. It was concluded that some of E. Macron’s decisions to combat the pandemic did have a negative, but not decisive impact on his rating. M. Le Pen, on the contrary, having adapted some of the most important points of her program during the coronavirus period, did not offer qualitatively new ideas to combat the pandemic, and experts continue to determine her as a right-wing populist politician with contradictory statements. It attracts new followers, however, if M. Le Pen enters the second round against E. Macron, the scenario of the 2017 elections is likely to repeat.
CHANGING SOCIETY. Social structure, social institutions and processes
The article contains the most significant and interesting materials of the scientific discussion on the problems of information sovereignty and information security in Russia held by the National Research Institute for the Communications Development. The authors identify the main threats and risks to the stability of the Russian Federation in the era of digitalization. Approaches to the definition of the concept of «information sovereignity» are considered, its criteria are defined. Problems of ensuring the information sovereignity of Russia are identified, in particular, relating to Russia’s technological dependence on foreign technologies and equipment, weak security of the Russian information infrastructure. During the discussion, recommendations were developed: 1) significantly increase the financing of the Russian high-tech industry, support Russian research in the field of computer technology in order to reduce dependence on foreign products to a minimum and increase the security of critical infrastructure facilities; 2) to continue the development of a special direction in the sphere of cybersecurity in the Russian Armed Forces, increase military potential in the sphere of digital technologies; 3) to pursue an active information policy aimed at combating false messages; 4) to monitor the dissemination of illegal information in social networks; 5) to begin the implementation of state policy in the field of public education on information security, rules for safe interaction with digital technologies; 6) to strengthen control over illegal activities on the Internet.
The article presents the materials of a scientific discussion held by the National Research Institute of Communications Development in April 2021. As the result of discussion the controllability assessment was carried out and the type of the communication mode of Belarus was determined. Geographical, historical, and geopolitical factors forming the Belarusian communication mode are analyzed from a historical point of view and in their current state. The evolution of communication mode was carried out under the influence of two multidirectional trends: the development of a system of vertical communications, typical for countries with an institutional matrix where redistributive institutions dominate, and horizontal communication systems, which is typical for countries with market-dominated institutions. As the result we see the formation of two cores in the communication mode. A number of participants of the discussion believe that one of the cores of the communication mode (connected with the Catholic Church) makes it impossible to build a rigid hierarchical communication model in Belarus, absolutely controlled by the authorities.
HISTORICAL RETROSPECTIVE AND MODERNITY. History of international relations and foreign policy
It is shown in the article that the formation of Russian Frontiers was carried out primarily due to the need to ensure the security of the borders. Periods in their evolution are identified and characterized here. It is established that the first stage (the formation of a military frontier) is associated with the construction of fortified lines and the relocation of Cossacks and peasants to the lands fenced by them. The second stage is the registration of the legal status of frontier territories and the establishment of special paramilitary forms of the government. The third stage is characterized, along with the transplantation of redistributive-type institutions that dominated the institutional matrix of Russia to new lands, by the emergence and spread of market institutions here, that caused the spatial heterogeneity of the Russian institutional matrix. The final stage is defrontization, various tools were used to achieve it: improvement of the material and technological environment of acquired territories, embedding them in the general imperial legal field, spreading Orthodoxy and Russian language, economic stimulation of Russian colonization by the state, socialization of local elites and their involvement in the process of managing new lands. At all stages, the evolution of frontier territories was governed by the Russian state, and the policy was based on the principles of dialogue with the autochthonous population. The presence of frontiers hindered the transition from extensive to intensive methods of space exploration, reoriented the empire to a self-sufficient development option, and determined a special, Russian path of modernization.
Under the Paris Climate Agreement, 193 states have committed themselves to reducing carbon emissions and adapting to climate change. Almost half of them have now adopted programs to achieve carbon neutrality. Last year, leading up to the 26th UN Climate Conference in Glasgow, many of the leading CO2 emitters stepped up their climate targets significantly. However, the desire to increasingly reduce fossil and nuclear energy in favor of «clean» sources has collided in 2021 with a global energy crisis that has called into question the sustainability of energy systems tailored to achieve climate goals. The purpose of this study is to identify the relationship between the rapid growth in natural gas prices and the implementation of climate commitments and national plans of states dependent on natural gas imports. The author analyzes the impact of the energy crisis on gas prices, and then, using the example of developed and developing countries among the largest emitters of carbon dioxide, monitors the impact of this price increase on the implementation of their climate obligations. Based on statistical data, the author studies the energy balance of China, Japan, India and Germany, its vulnerability to gas prices, the reaction of energy systems to the crisis and the subsequent measures of states to mitigate it in terms of following climate paradigms, in particular, abandoning coal. As a result of the study, the author comes to the conclusion that the issuing states in times of crises are forced to partially deviate from their previous climate measures, respectively, the implementation of their ambitious climate commitments that do not take into account such risks is in question.
POWER, POLITICS, STATE. Political institutions, processes and technologies
The article presents the materials of the discussion held at the National Research Institute of Communications Development (NIIRC). The participants discussed the problems of digitalization of public relations, hybridization of modern political regimes (as a model of adaptation of the state to digital technological transformations); problems of Russia’s sustainability in the context of energy wars and the climate agenda. The authors conclude that the relationship between digitalization and the stability of political systems is contradictory. Many advantages of large-scale use of digital technologies, increasing the efficiency of the political and administrative process and improving public and political institutions, in practice can have negative consequences, the key of which affects the stability of political systems. For the development of internal forces that contribute to stability and prevent destabilization, it is proposed to form social immunity.
The article deals with the issues of typology of regional elites in connection with their influence on the choice of models of political, state and socio-economic development of regions. The author singles out and describes the types of the regional elite (conservative, radical, progressive and colonial), proposes a methodical approach to classify representatives of the regional elite as a certain type based on their financial and property characteristics. For groups of regional elites, behavioral vectors (matrix of vectors) and targets (matrix of goals) are systematized, a scheme for the correlation of the «matrix of goals» (the goal of the elite in the region, an attractive system of power, attitude to the center, the landmark of the concept of change) and the «matrix of vectors» ( planning horizon, migration mobility, negotiability, escalation of violence) in the format of a “compass of elite behavior” (shows guidelines for socio-political development under the dominance of certain types of regional elite). The idea of developing «maps of spheres of influence and interests» of various elite groups has been put forward (it allows for the formalization of resources, motives and intentions, the creation of logical and mathematical models of the behavior of elite groups, monitoring and forecasting systems). The necessity of creating platforms for dialogue between groups of regional elites on the main guidelines for spatial development is substantiated.
In the article we analyze existing approaches to the implementation of the migration policy in the Russian Federation, highlight some conditions that have a destabilizing effect on its perception in society. Analyzing and introducing into scientific circulation some statistical data of federal executive authorities the authors talk about the existing points of the migration attraction and structure the international migration flows directed to Russia. The authors focus on the necessity of the certain changes related to the quantitative and qualitative indicators of international migration, believing that improving the efficiency of public authorities in this area will become a condition for ensuring socio-political stability with the deterioration of migration issues.